In a demonstration of diplomatic resolve that carries significant economic risks, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has refused to retract her statements about potential military involvement if China takes armed action against Taiwan, despite facing coordinated economic pressure from Beijing. The Chinese embassy in Tokyo has issued its second travel advisory in recent weeks, warning Chinese citizens about alleged safety concerns in Japan and effectively weaponizing tourism as a tool of diplomatic coercion.
Takaichi’s position centers on characterizing potential Chinese military action against Taiwan as a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan that could necessitate a military response. While she has clarified that she didn’t intend to mention Taiwan specifically and was responding sincerely to hypothetical questions, she has not walked back the substance of her comments. Instead, she continues to emphasize her commitment to maintaining a strategic, mutually beneficial relationship with China as discussed during her first meeting with President Xi Jinping last month.
The economic consequences of this diplomatic standoff are projected to be substantial. Economist Takahide Kiuchi estimates potential losses of 1.8 trillion yen ($11.5 billion) and a 0.3 percentage point reduction in Japan’s annual economic growth. These projections are based on the 2012 precedent when Chinese tourist numbers fell by approximately one-fourth during a territorial dispute over uninhabited islands, though the current situation may prove more severe given the fundamental nature of the Taiwan disagreement.
The pressure extends across multiple dimensions of the bilateral relationship. Cultural exchanges have been disrupted with postponed film releases and cancelled entertainment events in China. There are concerns about potential restrictions on rare earth exports, which are critical to Japanese manufacturing, and uncertainty about whether Beijing will lift its two-year ban on Japanese seafood. Tourism operators throughout Japan are experiencing immediate impacts, with cancellations extending months into the future.
China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning has made clear that Beijing’s position remains firm, demanding that Japan retract what it terms “erroneous remarks” and clarify its commitment to the “One China” principle. The fundamental disagreement revolves around interpretations of the 1972 joint statement that normalized diplomatic relations, with China seeking explicit Japanese endorsement of its sovereignty claims over Taiwan, while Japan maintains that its formula of understanding and respecting China’s position without full agreement represents its consistent stance on the issue.