DataGreat, a tourism intelligence platform, has unveiled an analysis that examines the potential impact of an enduring conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States on Turkey’s tourism sector, which ranks as the nation’s third-largest export industry. Alper Tekin, the founder of DataGreat, conducted this analysis using the platform’s Crisis Impact Simulator, which integrates data from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025.
Turkey’s proximity to the conflict region is significant, with six of its top ten inbound tourism markets, including Russia, Germany, the UK, Iran, Bulgaria, and Georgia, located within approximately 3,000 kilometers of the Iran-Israel axis. Tourism plays a crucial role in Turkey’s economy, contributing over 11 percent to its GDP and supporting around three million direct jobs, according to WTTC statistics cited by the platform.
The Crisis Impact Simulator, developed by DataGreat, does not provide forecasts but instead applies deterministic scenario rules to WTTC and World Bank data. A generative-AI layer then creates an explanatory narrative. The platform ensures accuracy by linking every numerical claim to a source identifier, rejecting outputs with unverified figures, a safeguard referred to by Tekin as “zero hallucinations.”
In Scenario A, the analysis considers a regional escalation leading to disruptions in airspace, tightened sanctions, or changes in airline routes due to insurance concerns. The primary concern for Turkey in this scenario is a reduction in European leisure travel demand, with potential deferrals rather than cancellations from Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands. Business travel from EU countries is expected to show greater resilience compared to leisure travel.
Scenario B models a potential 20 to 35 percent decline in Russian tourists visiting Turkey over a year, stemming from increased sanctions, payment issues, and ruble depreciation. This scenario would predominantly impact the coastal areas of Antalya and Muğla and businesses reliant on Russian charter operators. Meanwhile, Scenario C explores the volatility of the Turkish lira against the US dollar. While a weaker lira could make Turkey a more affordable destination for foreign tourists, it might also dampen domestic leisure spending as Turkish households adjust their budgets.
Tekin emphasized that the simulator serves as a planning tool rather than a predictive model, enabling tourism stakeholders to run scenarios in advance of potential news events. Media professionals can access detailed simulator outputs, including segment vulnerabilities and mitigation strategies, upon request. Additionally, DataGreat offers insights through its Risk Radar module, which evaluates tourism risks across 42 countries weekly.