The Iranian leadership is increasingly framing the current unrest as a precursor to civil war. Ali Larijani, a top security official, recently claimed that protesters are attacking military and police centers to obtain weapons. By labeling these groups as “terrorists,” the government is attempting to justify a brutal crackdown while bracing for the possibility of an armed insurgency backed by US airpower.
The US strategy involves more than just missiles; it involves a psychological component designed to “break public cohesion.” The White House believes that a targeted military strike on the leadership will empower the urban groups currently fighting the police. However, the risk of a chaotic civil war in a nation of 90 million people is a primary concern for US military planners.
The economic conditions in the country are ripe for further instability. With 60% inflation, the government can no longer provide basic stability for its citizens. This economic desperation is what the US hopes to harness, but it also creates a volatile environment where “insecurity will befall everyone,” as warned by Iranian spokespersons.
The role of the United Nations is currently limited to monitoring the escalating violence. Reports from special rapporteurs highlight a terrifying environment of state-sponsored killings and extortion. The inability of the UN to verify death tolls or mediate the conflict has left the door wide open for the US and Israel to take unilateral action.
As the carrier strike group enters its final position, the Iranian government is bracing for a conflict that will be fought on two fronts: the skies above and the streets below. Whether the result is a successful revolution or a devastating civil war remains the most pressing question for the entire Middle East.