The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, up from a previous estimate of 3.0%. Despite this upward revision, the forecast remains below the 3.5% growth recorded in 2025. Looking ahead, the IMF projects that the global economy will expand by 3.4% in 2027.
While investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is seen as a positive factor counteracting the economic impact of higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions, the IMF cautions against potential risks associated with AI. The uneven distribution of AI benefits is notable, with the United States and China accounting for more than 75% of the demand for imported computer chips and other AI-related equipment.
The IMF warns that a market correction in AI-related stocks, along with rising bond yields, increasing public debt, and cyber threats, could pose significant risks to global financial stability. Furthermore, the organization highlights the potential impact of AI on employment, suggesting that around 40% of jobs worldwide could be affected through changes in tasks, job quality, or employment levels.
According to the IMF, global inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027. This forecast assumes a resumption of oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz by March and a moderation in demand for AI-related products.
The IMF’s projections also include growth forecasts for major economies. The United States is expected to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, while China’s economy is predicted to expand by 4.5% this year. Meanwhile, India is projected to remain the fastest-growing major economy, with a growth rate of 7% in 2026, compared to 7.7% in 2025.
Emerging and developing economies are projected to grow by 3.7% in 2026, with an acceleration to 4.4% in 2027. However, the outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia is more challenging, with anticipated economic contraction this year before a recovery in 2027.
In light of these forecasts, the IMF urges governments to strengthen public finances and manage rising debt levels as borrowing costs remain high amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. This advice underscores the importance of economic resilience in navigating future challenges.